Minnesota +7.5 @ Carolina: Carolina-7 (buy half point)
Everything, or almost everything, points to a strong game for Carolina against the lowly Vikes this week. Well, everyone knows by now how good of a home dog the Vikes are, as evidenced by their 20-5 ATS record in this spot in last 20+ years, but what many people don't know, is that the same Vikings team that brings the cash to their backers in the home dog spot, also plays horrible in their game following the home dog cover, as evidenced by their 4-16 ATS record in last 20+ years. And I don't think it will be any different this week, as they have to play a strong and rested Carolina team (on a three game winning streak, comming off of a bye week), that could actually get their first blowout win of the season this week. They were playing down to their opponents level this season but following the bye week, they should be at their best. They are capable of making this Minnesota offense a very one-dimensional squad, with the 3rd best defense against the run and 2nd best defense in terms of rushing yards allowed per attempt. And that great run defense is facing an already struggling Minny run offense. And the struggling running offense from Carolina (big surprise imho) should have an easy time this time around, rested, and facing the #30 run defense in the NFL. They already have a solid passing offense and if their running offense starts working as well as it is supposed to, they could move the ball with a lot of ease tomorrow. Carolina also has the #1 edge in the red zone tomorrow, out of 14 games and that is huge. Minny is already 0-3 on the road this season, both straight up and against the spread and they lost those three games by 25 pts on average. They have to find enough energy to play Carolina, after that emotional comeback win against the Packers last week, and if we look back, using my systems, we'll find out that not many teams find success in a game following such a win. Here is the system I was just talking about:
Play against @ favs or dogs of 8- pts if they won their previous game as dogs, trailing by 10+ at the half: 21-6 ATS last 22 years. System supports Carolina.
Play on winning teams off bye, vs teams of any come from behind wins: 25-7 ATS last 12 years.
System supports Carolina.
Washington +2 @ Dallas
Both teams standing at 4-2 for the season but as much as I love Washington so far this season, I just can't go against a team that won 7 straight home games (including the preseason), and that is NYG. Washington has a very small edge in almost every stat I use in my weekly handicapping, including the running game (off and def), red zone and third down efficiency, but that edge is just too small in every category that it is hard for me to make a case for them. As for the Giants, they do have enough chemistry in their game, especially at home, to beat anyone, including the Redskins. In a game that could very well be decided by a field goal, I don't think the points will matter, and it makes no sense to take them, or to play Giants on the moneyline. Those who like Washington should take them on the moneyline, and those who like Dallas, should lay the points. I kinda like them both and in a situation like this one, I prefer to pass. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we don't have to place bets on games like this one. No Play.
System supporting N.Y.Giants: Play on Home favs of a home win, opponent of a 21+Win: 20-8 ATS last 11 years. SYSTEM SUGGESTION:NYG
Oakland -1.5 @ Tennessee, No play, No lean
Two unpredictable teams facing each other in a game that should finally show us what these teams are really made of. Oakland played (by far) taughest schedule this year, and their 2-4 record is no surprise to me. Other than in their game vs San Diego, they played well despite their record, and should be able to put points on the board against a young Tennessee team. However, Tennessee tends to play taugh at home, regardless the personel they have on the field and they will fight in this one for sure. They have a little bit better running game and the Raiders have a little bit better passing game. The red zone is just about equal, and there is no clear cut edge on either side imho. This game is a perfect definition of a coin flip. No play.
System supporting Oakland: Play on road favs off a 14+pts SU and ATS win as a home fav: 22-9 ATS last 11 years. SYSTEM SUGGESTION:OAKLAND
Jacksonville -3.5 @ St.Louis: Jacksonville-3 (buy .5 pt)
The only reason this one is not a full play for me, is the fact that I did not take this one earlier this week, when the line was -2.5. This is probably the bigest defensive missmatch this season and one of the bigest missmatches on the talent and effort level this season. The coaching missmatch is not far behind. The Jags may just be a top 3 team this year and they face once promissing team (pre-season) and now a team in a mess, playing without their starting QB and their head coach. St. Louis has no defense and they face the most physical defense in the NFL. They also face an underrated offense, that can score enough points to win on any given Sunday. Jacksonville is also my top NFL pick on that list that I explained in my NCAA writeups, and the 2nd best pick in football this week. Stl was outgained in last three games and they did not deserve that win last week vs the Saints. This is also a game after the bye week for Jacksonville and they should hadle a tired and banged up STL team with ease. Jacksonville is also the #4 pick in the Hilton contest this week.
Play on road favs off bye if opp. played at home previous week: 24-5 SU and 21-6 ATS last 17 years.
Play against home dogs of 4 pts or less of a covering home fav win: 24-9 ATS last 20 years.
Both systems support Jacksonville.
Tampa -11 @ SF : SF +11
Some may call this 'playing with fire' but I just can't pass on all those points, even knowing that I'm backing the NFL worst team this week. As I said in my NO/ATL writeup last week, these guys are professional athletes and they have some pride. They will fight tomorrow for those fans who will stil be there cheering for their 49ers, despite the embarassing loss to the Redskins last week. And they will face a banged up TB team that just made an 'urgency' QB change for this game. SF may not win this game, but I can't believe they will be blown out of the stadium either. A 7 pts win for TB will make everybody happy I guess.SF actually has the red zone edge in this game and the Hilton players just don't believe in TB cover in this game either. TB is the 22nd best choice this week which is not good for a double digit fav.
Play on home dogs with the redzone edge for the season, if they lost their previous game as a road dog: 28-3 ATS Last 7 years.
Play against road favs off bye, if the opponent played on the road last week: 18-9 ATS L10Y.
and so on...
GET MY 2 MONTH PACKAGE THIS WEEK AND IF I DON'T WIN ON SATURDAY+SUNDAY, YOU GET ONE MORE MONTH FOR FREE !!!
WSYSTEMS@HOTMAIL.COM
Everything, or almost everything, points to a strong game for Carolina against the lowly Vikes this week. Well, everyone knows by now how good of a home dog the Vikes are, as evidenced by their 20-5 ATS record in this spot in last 20+ years, but what many people don't know, is that the same Vikings team that brings the cash to their backers in the home dog spot, also plays horrible in their game following the home dog cover, as evidenced by their 4-16 ATS record in last 20+ years. And I don't think it will be any different this week, as they have to play a strong and rested Carolina team (on a three game winning streak, comming off of a bye week), that could actually get their first blowout win of the season this week. They were playing down to their opponents level this season but following the bye week, they should be at their best. They are capable of making this Minnesota offense a very one-dimensional squad, with the 3rd best defense against the run and 2nd best defense in terms of rushing yards allowed per attempt. And that great run defense is facing an already struggling Minny run offense. And the struggling running offense from Carolina (big surprise imho) should have an easy time this time around, rested, and facing the #30 run defense in the NFL. They already have a solid passing offense and if their running offense starts working as well as it is supposed to, they could move the ball with a lot of ease tomorrow. Carolina also has the #1 edge in the red zone tomorrow, out of 14 games and that is huge. Minny is already 0-3 on the road this season, both straight up and against the spread and they lost those three games by 25 pts on average. They have to find enough energy to play Carolina, after that emotional comeback win against the Packers last week, and if we look back, using my systems, we'll find out that not many teams find success in a game following such a win. Here is the system I was just talking about:
Play against @ favs or dogs of 8- pts if they won their previous game as dogs, trailing by 10+ at the half: 21-6 ATS last 22 years. System supports Carolina.
Play on winning teams off bye, vs teams of any come from behind wins: 25-7 ATS last 12 years.
System supports Carolina.
Washington +2 @ Dallas
Both teams standing at 4-2 for the season but as much as I love Washington so far this season, I just can't go against a team that won 7 straight home games (including the preseason), and that is NYG. Washington has a very small edge in almost every stat I use in my weekly handicapping, including the running game (off and def), red zone and third down efficiency, but that edge is just too small in every category that it is hard for me to make a case for them. As for the Giants, they do have enough chemistry in their game, especially at home, to beat anyone, including the Redskins. In a game that could very well be decided by a field goal, I don't think the points will matter, and it makes no sense to take them, or to play Giants on the moneyline. Those who like Washington should take them on the moneyline, and those who like Dallas, should lay the points. I kinda like them both and in a situation like this one, I prefer to pass. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we don't have to place bets on games like this one. No Play.
System supporting N.Y.Giants: Play on Home favs of a home win, opponent of a 21+Win: 20-8 ATS last 11 years. SYSTEM SUGGESTION:NYG
Oakland -1.5 @ Tennessee, No play, No lean
Two unpredictable teams facing each other in a game that should finally show us what these teams are really made of. Oakland played (by far) taughest schedule this year, and their 2-4 record is no surprise to me. Other than in their game vs San Diego, they played well despite their record, and should be able to put points on the board against a young Tennessee team. However, Tennessee tends to play taugh at home, regardless the personel they have on the field and they will fight in this one for sure. They have a little bit better running game and the Raiders have a little bit better passing game. The red zone is just about equal, and there is no clear cut edge on either side imho. This game is a perfect definition of a coin flip. No play.
System supporting Oakland: Play on road favs off a 14+pts SU and ATS win as a home fav: 22-9 ATS last 11 years. SYSTEM SUGGESTION:OAKLAND
Jacksonville -3.5 @ St.Louis: Jacksonville-3 (buy .5 pt)
The only reason this one is not a full play for me, is the fact that I did not take this one earlier this week, when the line was -2.5. This is probably the bigest defensive missmatch this season and one of the bigest missmatches on the talent and effort level this season. The coaching missmatch is not far behind. The Jags may just be a top 3 team this year and they face once promissing team (pre-season) and now a team in a mess, playing without their starting QB and their head coach. St. Louis has no defense and they face the most physical defense in the NFL. They also face an underrated offense, that can score enough points to win on any given Sunday. Jacksonville is also my top NFL pick on that list that I explained in my NCAA writeups, and the 2nd best pick in football this week. Stl was outgained in last three games and they did not deserve that win last week vs the Saints. This is also a game after the bye week for Jacksonville and they should hadle a tired and banged up STL team with ease. Jacksonville is also the #4 pick in the Hilton contest this week.
Play on road favs off bye if opp. played at home previous week: 24-5 SU and 21-6 ATS last 17 years.
Play against home dogs of 4 pts or less of a covering home fav win: 24-9 ATS last 20 years.
Both systems support Jacksonville.
Tampa -11 @ SF : SF +11
Some may call this 'playing with fire' but I just can't pass on all those points, even knowing that I'm backing the NFL worst team this week. As I said in my NO/ATL writeup last week, these guys are professional athletes and they have some pride. They will fight tomorrow for those fans who will stil be there cheering for their 49ers, despite the embarassing loss to the Redskins last week. And they will face a banged up TB team that just made an 'urgency' QB change for this game. SF may not win this game, but I can't believe they will be blown out of the stadium either. A 7 pts win for TB will make everybody happy I guess.SF actually has the red zone edge in this game and the Hilton players just don't believe in TB cover in this game either. TB is the 22nd best choice this week which is not good for a double digit fav.
Play on home dogs with the redzone edge for the season, if they lost their previous game as a road dog: 28-3 ATS Last 7 years.
Play against road favs off bye, if the opponent played on the road last week: 18-9 ATS L10Y.
and so on...
GET MY 2 MONTH PACKAGE THIS WEEK AND IF I DON'T WIN ON SATURDAY+SUNDAY, YOU GET ONE MORE MONTH FOR FREE !!!
WSYSTEMS@HOTMAIL.COM
